Anthony Albanese once declared that “Australians don’t rush to tinker with the constitution but nor do they avoid it altogether”.

He made that claim in November 2019 in a speech to the Australian Republican Movement (Arm), in a section expressing optimism that an Indigenous voice and an Australian head of state were both ideas whose time had come.

It feels like a lifetime ago. The then-opposition leader joked that Prince Andrew’s train wreck interview about his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein all but guaranteed “we’ll become a republic next year”.

The republic, which was behind the voice in the government’s order of priority, has only got further and further away.

Queen Elizabeth II – whose reign was considered the biggest obstacle to a republic because of Australians’ special affection for her – has died. But few outside the Greens used that moment to call for an Australian head of state.

Albanese swore his allegiance to King Charles III, declared a republic was not “imminent”, and that he didn’t want to be a prime minister who “presides over just constitutional debates”.

If that was his disposition when the Indigenous voice was riding high in the polls, then enthusiasm for another crack at constitutional reform now must be near-zero.

The yes vote for the voice failed to reach 40%, making the 45% achieved in the 1999 republican referendum look respectable.

The assistant minister for the republic, Matt Thistlethwaite, has told Guardian Australia the voice result makes a republic “a lot harder” although Labor “remains committed” to the idea.

To see why it’s much harder, consider the record.

Support for the voice started sky-high, with as many as 65% of Australians in favour in August 2022. Roughly one in four Australians wanted to vote for it but lost their nerve by referendum day on 14 October.

When Guardian Essential polled the issue in May 2023, some 54% of voters said they would vote for Australia to become a republic compared with 46% for keeping the monarchy.

A bare majority is a poor start before the scare campaigns start. The poll question did not specify a direct election or appointment model for the head of state – and that’s what split supporters in the 1999 referendum.

Arm’s national director, Isaac Jeffrey, says the voice constitutional alteration was “short and simple” but the republic would require more “extensive changes”, everything from term lengths and limits to the method of selection for the head of state.

We don’t even know what an Australian head of state would be called – but after Donald Trump and January 6 the term “president” is likely to be out of the question.

As Albanese has noted since the voice defeat, no referendums have been successful without bipartisan support. Thisthlethwaite agrees this will be critical for the republic.

But the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, who helped tank the voice, was prepared to start a political brawl with Labor over replacing the queen on the $5 note. You’d have to be looking elsewhere for bipartisanship.

The deputy opposition leader, Sussan Ley, does have a republican streak. Arm and Thisthlethwaite are confident that plenty of Liberals and Nationals support a republic but it would need to secure a commitment to a free vote at least, which shadow ministers were denied on the voice.

The biggest problem is the care factor. In a News Corp poll before the 14 October referendum, voice was ranked just 17th in the order of priority for Australians. One shudders to think where a republic would rank, presumably somewhere behind internet/5G, refugees and religion, the 18th, 19th and 20th issues.

Thisthlethwaite describes the republic as part of Labor’s “longer-term vision”. Its immediate priority is “providing relief to Australians dealing with cost of living pressures”.

The republic is likely to be off the agenda until after Indigenous leaders decide how to advance reconciliation and closing the gap if not through a voice. We’ll also need to be past the cost-of-living crisis and require a change of opposition leader.

Jeffrey doesn’t agree there is any need to change the timeline. He wants a vote in the next term of government but concedes if it “takes a little longer” to win community support “that’s what matters”.

Thisthlethwaite is blunter: the voice result “will delay [the republic] by a reasonable amount”.

As he visited the UK to attend the coronation in May, Albanese told Piers Morgan that the push must be “a feeling from the bottom up”.

“A demand for another vote isn’t something that can be imposed from the top because it won’t be successful,” he said.

So how will the republican movement get off the mat and back on the agenda?

Jeffrey says Arm will conduct community consultations next year to get maximum buy-in for a specific model of republic.

Thistlethwaite canvasses a range of ways to get Australians engaged – including a constitutional convention or a citizens’ assembly.

Even former Labor leader Bill Shorten’s old proposal for a plebiscite to test public support and pick a model is on the table. Perhaps it will take an external shock to get things moving.

Speaking to Arm, Albanese noted: “The united nature of the kingdom is strained by Brexit-fuelled disquiet in Northern Ireland and fresh stirrings of independence in Scotland.” A majority in Britain still approve of the monarchy but support is at an all-time low.

It would be a testament to how conservative Australia is and how high a bar our constitution sets for change if the UK falls apart or turns against its monarch before we do. After 14 October you couldn’t rule it out.