With a general election fast approaching – one has to be held by 28 January 2025 at the latest – there is little time for Rishi Sunak to come up with a masterplan. His party is way behind in the polls, and every week brings another crisis – small boats, school buildings, NHS waiting lists soaring, councils going bust.

Keir Starmer and Labour now look increasingly confident, and likely to form the next government.

This autumn offers plenty of potential big political moments, however, when the mood could suddenly change…

October: party conferences

The Liberal Democrats go first, beginning their four-day meeting in Bournemouth next Saturday (23 September). Ed Davey’s party is in an upbeat mood and confident of taking plenty of seats from the Tories, particularly in the south.

Next up are the Tories from 1-4 October in Manchester. Increasingly, MPs hold out little hope of winning again. Sunak will have to raise the mood and deliver a storming speech to restore belief.

Labour will bring up the tail in Liverpool from 8-11 October. It will be a chance for Starmer to pose as a prime minister-in-waiting – while not giving the impression he is taking power for granted.

October: a trio of byelections

There are three key byelections in the coming weeks, the results of which will be important in mood-setting. On Thursday 5 October, the SNP will try to hold off Labour in Rutherglen and Hamilton West in what will be a crucial indicator of Starmer’s progress north of the border, and the SNP’s continuing struggles.

Then, on 19 October, the Tories will try to hold on in what should be the dead-safe seat of Mid Bedfordshire within their blue heartlands, formerly held by Boris Johnson fan Nadine Dorries. If Labour or the Lib Dems were to snatch the seat, it would be seismic.

Also on 19 October, the Tories will defend Tamworth in Staffordshire, vacated by Chris Pincher who was found by the Commons Standards to have been guilty of an “egregious case of sexual misconduct” at London’s Carlton Club last year. Labour would need to overcome another huge Tory majority here to win, but expectations are high these days.

November: the Covid inquiry

In early November, Lady Hallett, who heads the Covid inquiry, will be summoning a string of Tory politicians past and present to talk about their handling of the pandemic. Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, Dominic Cummings and Matt Hancock will all be in the dock as the inquiry tries to uncover the truth about what went on.

7 November: the king’s speech

This will be a chance for a fresh start in more ways than one. It will be the first time Charles III has delivered the speech as monarch, following the death of his mother last year. It will also be the last programme of legislation from the government before the next election.

22 November: the autumn statement

The chancellor of the exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, will update MPs on the country’s finances and its plans for tax and public spending, which will be based on the latest economic and financial forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

With the public finances stretched as they are, all eyes and ears will be on whether he can give cause for any optimism, and indicate room for tax cuts in the runup to the general election, which are a key demand of many on the right of his party.